Jacob J. Oleson, PhD
Infectious disease modeling is a broad term used to represent how mathematical and statistical models can characterize the dynamics of infectious diseases spreading. The disease spread may denote the spread of the disease within an individual, the spread in a population over time, or the spread in a population over geographic space. In this talk, we will discuss methods to address each of these definitions of spread within a Bayesian compartmental modeling framework. We will discuss population level modeling versus subject specific modeling, incorporating spatial statistics when a disease progresses through multiple geographical pathways, the calculation of the basic reproductive number in these hierarchical models, and how spread is impacted when multiple mammals obtain the same disease via a vector-borne transmission. Model development is motivated by three specific infectious diseases as we address these various issues.